Update on Earl: The Latest Analysis and What It Means for New England - NECN
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Update on Earl: The Latest Analysis and What It Means for New England



    Update:  Hurricane Earl is passing the Outer Banks of North Carolina,
    producing wind gusts in excess of 50 mph along immediate shorelines, but
    very little wind just 30 miles inland.  The hurricane has encountered
    strong winds aloft, which have disrupted its inner core and weakened the
    storm.  As the hurricane moves north overnight and early Friday, it will
    encounter the Gulf Stream and may strengthen briefly again, before
    encountering more wind aloft and cooler ocean temperatures.

    The track will likely be over the waters southeast of Nantucket, passing
    between 50 and 100 miles to the southeast of the Island.  There are
    indications from numerous guidance products that a void of wind may
    develop on the northwest quadrant of the storm, at the time it passes
    Nantucket.  This void would develop as the storm begins its transition
    from tropical to non-tropical.  Having said that, wind gusts in excess
    of 110 mph will still be present on the southwest and all eastern sides
    of the storm center.  Additionally, heavy bands of rain developing on
    the northwest quadrant of the storm may focus stronger winds aloft,
    driving them to the surface.

    The end result is to find rain developing at the South Coast between
    noon and 2 PM, and the NH Seacoast between 5 and 7 PM, becoming heavier
    within 3 hours of starting.  Heavier bursts and bands of rain will focus
    stronger wind gusts to 39+ mph, primarily along the coastal communities
    and those within 30 miles of the coast from the NH/ME border southward.
    On Cape Cod and the Islands, the Hurricane Warning remains in effect for
    the possibility of drawing these stronger winds to the ground in heavier
    rain bursts, as well.  In a circumstance like this, the end result is
    not the same as it is for a Gloria (1985) or Bob (1991).  Instead, we
    tend to see damage done rather randomly, where and when the heavier rain
    occurs, and especially between 11 PM Friday and 5 AM Saturday.

    Occasionally, a storm undergoing non-tropical transition can develop
    strong winds on the backside of the circulation.  I believe this may be
    the case across the far South Shore, Cape Cod and the Islands between 1
    AM and 5 AM Saturday.  After most of the storm blows from the east, then
    northeast...this would come as winds snap direction to blow from the
    northwest, on the backside of the storm as it starts to pull away.
    Believe it or not, this may bring the greatest threat for damage from
    wind for Southeastern MA.

    Rainfall amounts will be 3"-6" Southeast MA with urban and poor drainage
    flooding, 1"-3" farther inland...less than 1" west of Worcester.

    Storm surge of 2'-4' will mean splashover, minor and perhaps pockets of
    moderate coastal flooding, though the storm passes with a receding tide.

    Rip currents are building now and will continue through the weekend.

    Saturday may still feature a 10-20 mph wind from the west, so line
    repair may be slightly hindered, but weather will be quiet, and winds
    will decrease with fair weather expected Sunday and Labor Day.

    Overall - pockets of damage rather randomly dispersed, with a heavier
    concentration and more widespread nature on the Outer Cape and Nantucket.