Addressed in this post:
- Heavy snow potential
- Wind expectation
- Forecast rain totals
A storm center will cross Southeast Massachusetts, near Cape Cod, on Thursday, but well ahead of the storm, cold air will be in place with warmth and moisture surging north in association with the storm. This collision of air will mean a burst of wintry precipitation, starting around dinnertime Wednesday from New York City through southwest Connecticut, and overtaking most of the southern half of New England by 11 PM Wednesday. All the while, an onshore wind will transport mild air inland from the ocean, but given the heavy, dense nature of the cold air ahead of the storm, warming of the airmass will be sluggish, meaning extended wintry weather the farther inland and especially farther north one is. Most of deep interior Southern New England will see snow developing Wednesday evening from southwest to northeast, after dark, and slowly transitioning to a mix...rain inside of Route 495. By Thursday morning, sleet will mix in through Central New England while the north stays all snow. All the while, gusty wind will increase for many, with east wind gusts exceeding 35 mph in heavy snow areas, meaning some power outages are possible, and exceeding 50 mph at immediate coasts. Finally, where we see a turn to rain, heavy precipitation will drop between one and a half and three inches of rain, with greatest amounts found from the Merrimack Valley through Southeast New Hampshire into Southern Maine. It's worth noting that this very well may mean a band of enhanced snowfall amounts in Northern York, Northern Cumberland and Southern Oxford Counties, Maine, where this coastal enhancement of precipitation meets cold air.
Precipitation Map for 11:00 PM Wednesday:
Precipitation Map for 7 AM Thursday:
Southern New England (note sharp difference in amounts, meaning slight change in storm track can have large implications on amounts:
Northern New England - Note that coastal front may enhance amounts (not indicated here) in Northern York, Northern Cumberland and Southern Oxford Counties, ME):
It's worth noting, in order to accentuate the uncertainty that exists with this storm, the National Weather Service forecast for interior Southern New England is for much more snow. Why the difference? It all has to do with exact storm track, and the very fast increase in storm amounts when north of the storm center - where does that sharp contrast set up?
Wind Gust Forecast Thursday morning - scattered outages possible both at the immediate coastline and also in areas where heavy, wet snow weights tree limbs and power lines. Flight delays Thursday morning.
Precipitation Forecast (total rain and melted snow):