The 1014 millibar low pressure center that moved from Alberta Canadainto North Dakota on December 1st, is now, Sunday December 5, 2010, a1002 millibar low east of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Usually that's the end of the story. But not this time.
Very much like last winter, an almost of the chart North AtlanticBlock will turn this clipper north, then west through Nova Scotia,Maine, Quebec.. all the way to Northern Ontario by Tuesday.Night. Thecentral pressure is forecast to fall from 1002 millibars (29.6"), to970 millibars (28.6") over Caribou Maine Monday afternoon. This is yetanother show of 'Bombogenesis' near New England. Just a few weeks agowe saw Bombogenesis over Massachusetts Bay during that November 8thRain in Maine, Snow on Cape Cod storm. That one had an eye and gusts to60 mph. This one may be also have a dry, near calm center, with guststo 60+ mph. The wind will be strongest north and east of the center, soany blizzard conditions my stay north of the boarder in Canada. But wewill be close to a Blizzard in Aroostoock County Monday afternoon andevening. The temperature will be just cold enough for snow, though rain maykeep accumulations down for few hours in eastern most Maine. Rightalong the cold side of the rain snow line, we are expecting a foot ofpasting snow. The wind and heavy snow will result in Power Outages inmuch of northern Maine and southern Quebec. The storm maxes inintensity Monday afternoon, then moves northwest into Ontario aweakening storm thereafter. For most of New england the impact is anicy cold wind for much of this week. The mountains of New Hampshire andwill pick up 3"-6" of snow with heavy wind Tuesday.
The CanadianExpress Chill is here with sunshine Weds/Thurs. The dewpoint will fallbelow zero, making this the best possible weather for making snow atthe ski areas. There is no extended thaw for the next two weeks. As amatter of fact, extreme cold is rebuilding in Northern Canada with aparade of storms coming in from the Pacific Ocean. This means coast tocoast snow storms for the next two weeks. But with such strong NorthAtlantic Blocking, we can not assume they will be all snow for NewEngland. That was shown November 8th and again December 3rd when we hadrain in Maine with snow south and west. The warmer air from the oceanis forced westward, as the cold heads south. So any storm may bringsnow, it may be rain too, especially east of The Merrimack River.
Every third or fourth run of the weather models is showing a massiveeast coast storm around December 13th. That one would likely be bothrain and snow, with colder than normal temperatures before and afterthat December Gale.. It's not a matter of if this will happen, it's amatter of where and when. In addition to Matt's 'Notes from theslopes', we are planning on resuming the 'Downhill Lowdown' this Wedsor Next. And if your suit is thick enough, surf is up for theforeseeable future. Water temps are falling toward 45, with air near35, that only equals 80, about 10 too cool for The SurfSkiWeatherMan.