Tax Season

Should you expect a lower tax refund this year? Here's what the IRS says

Despite data showing refunds have been smaller thus far this tax season, some might actually be larger than anticipated.

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While most Americans have yet to file their taxes, if you've already done so, you might be holding out hope for a sizable refund.

Newly released IRS data reveals the average refund issued so far is substantially less than last year. Despite the initial findings, your refund might actually be bigger this time around.

The average refund, based on the 2.6 million doled out this tax season, is $1,395, which is roughly 29% smaller than last year's $1,963, data revealed.

It's important to note that because the filing season began on Jan. 29, the IRS had only been receiving returns for five days when numbers were compiled. Last year, tax season began a little earlier - on Jan. 23 - which gave the IRS 12 days of data.

The agency insists the early statistics suggest a "strong start to filing season 2024."

"It really is very preliminary data," Mark Steber, chief tax information officer at Jackson Hewitt told CNBC. "I caution anyone on reading too much into an entire year, or a tax season of 3½ months, on five days worth of data."

Many people who typically file early — such as earned income tax recipients and child tax credit recipients — still haven't filed, he said.

Despite data showing refunds have been smaller thus far -- some might actually be larger than anticipated.

As a result of high inflation, the IRS upped the federal income tax bracket and standard deduction -- with both increases being higher than normal. The changes were made, in part, to avoid "bracket creep" - when taxpayers are pushed into higher tax brackets by a raise meant to account for inflation.

With tax season underway, here's information on what you need to file, how you can track your refund and resources to help make the process as stress-free as possible.

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