NFL playoff picture: How loss to Colts makes Pats' pursuit of No. 1 seed tougher originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The New England Patriots' run as the No. 1 seed in the AFC has come to an end, at least for now.
The Patriots needed a win to leapfrog the Kansas City Chiefs in the conference standings and reclaim the top seed, but they lost 27-17 to the Indianapolis Colts in their Week 15 game at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night.
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FiveThirtyEight's predictive model gives the Patriots just a 18% chance of earning the No. 1 seed following their defeat to the Colts. The Pats need both the Chiefs and Tennessee Titans to lose another game to have any chance of getting back the top seed.
New England is now the No. 3 seed behind the Titans. However, the Patriots will move back up to the No. 2 seed if the Titans lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon. If the Patriots, Titans and Ravens are all tied with a 9-5 record, New England would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Titans and the conference record tiebreaker over the Ravens.
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New England Patriots
Despite their loss Saturday, the Patriots remain atop the AFC East.
If the Buffalo Bills defeat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, they'll enter their Week 16 showdown against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium with a chance to take back first place in the division. A Bills win against the Patriots in Week 16, assuming they also beat the Panthers, would give both teams a 9-6 record. In that scenario, Buffalo would have the division record tiebreaker over New England and sit atop the AFC East.
But the Patriots still control their own destiny in the AFC East race, and a win versus the Bills next week would make it really tough for Buffalo to prevent New England from taking the division crown.
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Here's an updated look at the AFC playoff picture entering Sunday's Week 15 matchups. This story will be updated through Monday night's game.
In a Playoff Spot
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 10-4 (AFC West leader)
2. Tennessee Titans, 9-4 (AFC South leader)
3. New England Patriots, 9-5 (AFC East leader)
4. Baltimore Ravens, 8-5 (AFC North leader)
5. Indianapolis Colts, 8-6 (First wild card)
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 8-6 (Second wild card)
7. Buffalo Bills, 7-6 (Third wild card)
On the Bubble
8. Cleveland Browns, 7-6
9. Cincinnati Bengals, 7-6
10. Denver Broncos, 7-6
11. Pittsburgh Steelers, 6-6-1
12. Las Vegas Raiders, 6-7
13. Miami Dolphins, 6-7
