After a beautiful day across most of New England, it's time to face the music. Showers I had hoped would come through Saturday night now have sped up. Timing has been pushed back to tomorrow afternoon, wetting down at least the second half of the day.
The big conundrum of the weekend is whether or not severe weather will pop up. I'm not the type to be wishy-washy in the forecast - nor can I admit that I simply don't know - but the thunderstorm threat tomorrow afternoon really has me stumped.
The setup is NOT a common one for New England, with a strong wind blowing in the upper atmosphere from Ontario to Southern New England - what we call northwest flow. Coupled with a warm front at the surface moving in from New York City, the question becomes how and where the storms flare and maintain themselves. Often we see the storm threat fade as they near the coast of New England, thanks to the stable maritime air. But these storms are ignorant of what's happening at the surface, and can survive despite what the temperature or winds are doing on the ground.
Which makes the forecast pretty complex. If they form, they'll likely survive through the afternoon. If they don't, it's just plain rain. And that's the end of it.
Sunday the cool front passes first thing, so any warmth in the morning will be fleeting. Gusty winds will mix down the cooler air, and we'll either struggle to keep the temperatures near 70 in Southern New England, or they will fall into the 60s (and eventually 50s) in Northern New England.
Winds will pick up as well. Gusts could again hit 40mph in the afternoon as the warm and cool air change hands. There go the leaves, twigs and pollen again...
Wamer weather is on tap for next week. The only thing we have to give it is time. Should be knocking on the door of 80 by the end of the workweek.
Enjoy the weekend and be safe. Please watch for pedestrians, bikes and motorcycles!