Wednesday Night Computer Guidance Tells the Story of Continued High Severe Weather Threat for Thursday

The Wednesday night computer guidance cycle of the NAM model - a guidance product that typically does well handling thunderstorms - is in.  This image represents the forecast precipitation from 8PM to 2AM Thursday night.  The pinks and purples in the image indicate expectd 1.5 to 3" of rain in just the 6-hour timeframe.  Though exact amounts & even placement of them may not be spot on, message is clear: tremendous volatility in the sky.  These computer guidance products are not perfect, by any means, but they run off of equations, calculus and physics that - if there were enough initial information plugged into them - are perfect.  That is to say, while the placement and amounts may not be correct, clearly the physics that drive the guidance are screaming very loudly one unavoidable statement:  there will be violent and vigorous rising air for storm production around Southern New England between 8 PM and 2 AM Thursday night.  Especially when combined with a wind profile that favors sustained and rotating storms, this forecast continues to add validity for concern of severe weather deep into the night in Southern New England Thursday night.  In the end, nature will have the final say. Placement of warm front by mid/late Thu afternoon will dictate storm paths.  As you can imagine, I'll be in weather junkie mode all day and will be sure to keep you abreast, especially on NECN this evening, from 4 PM onward.