All year the weather models keep forecasting a Big Storm near New England in 10-15 days. Then 10-15 Days pass, and so does the storm threat. Somehow they continue to miss. Last week it was the March 27 storm that hit Newfoundland. This week it is a storm that raced across with rain and snow Sunday Night & early Monday. This was a mere 29.7' Low as is dug into the mean trough to our east. Now this storm is 'Bombing Out' the central pressure is dropping rapidly, down to 28.67" by Tuesday Morning April 3 (9 days ago the GFS weather model had this storm in the Gulf Of Maine on April 3rd) The new forecast calls for a position near 40 degrees north Latitude, 60 degrees west Longitude. With a central pressure of 28.67 that would be more powerful than the Great April Fools Day Blizzard of 1997. The two scenarios are shown below. A very close call on a Global Scale.
Yes, It is cold enough for a similar snowfall to 1997... One to Two feet with hurricane force gusts. I guess it's a good thing that this one is missing. Surfers will be happy with the Groundswell that arrives Later Wednesday and Thursday.
Monday Morning Update
Wildcat got 3" Snow Last Night.. otherwise this clipper under performed (again). Even so, at Boston Logan Airport ASOS .24" of Rainfall is the most H2O since the .38" March 3rd, including .1" snow, that was last measurable snow at BOS.
We are running a 50% Rainfall Deficit in New England for 2012. Generally about 4"-6" of Rainfall this year is roughly half the climatological 'norm'. It's been nearly 10 years since the last prolonged drought, we may be due.
Yeah it's been too warm, by about +12 degrees per day in March, the warmest on record for much of the USA east of The Rockies. Though at Blue Hill Observatory The Warmth of 1946 still holds as warmest March on record.
There were a bunch of years.. 1910,1921,1936,1938,1939,1945,1946 & 1948 that were record breaking in the first half of The 20th Century. At that point the Globe had just Warmed from the Little Ice Age. Maybe we can call the Global Cooling of the mid 20th Century The Tiny Ice Age.
Here is a sampling of March 2012 Records set in New England.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
923 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
...MONTHLY MARCH RECORDS SET AT BURLINGTON VERMONT...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 AT BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 43.2 DEGREES. THIS IS A NEW RECORD HIGH MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 40.0 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1903.
THE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 AT BURLINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 33.6 DEGREES. THIS IS A NEW RECORD HIGH
AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MARCH WAS
33.5 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1903.
THE AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 AT BURLINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 52.8 DEGREES. THIS IS A NEW RECORD HIGH
AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MARCH WAS
52.0 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1946.
MARCH 2012 WAS THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD (1884-2012) AT
BURLINGTON VERMONT. IT FINISHED 12.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(1980-2010) WHICH IS THE THIRD HIGHEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURE ON RECORD. THE TOP THREE MONTHLY DEPARTURES ARE LISTED
FEB 1981: +14.8 DEGREES
JAN 1990: +13.2 DEGREES
MAR 2012: +12.2 DEGREES
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
...CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE HAD ITS WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD...
CONCORD HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 42.1 DEGREES IN MARCH. THIS
BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 41.1 DEGREES SET IN 1921 AND AGAIN IN 1946.
THIS MARCH WAS 9.0 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MARCH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.1 DEGREES AND CONTRASTS TO THE COLDEST MARCH OF
23.5 DEGREES SET IN 1885.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012
MARCH 2012 CAME IN AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR ALBANY...GLENS
FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.
MARCH 2012 IS THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR ALBANY SINCE 1820 WITH
AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 45.9 DEGREES...10.9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 44.4 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1859
BY 1.5 DEGREES. SEVEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BROKEN...AS WELL
AS FIVE HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND SEVEN HIGH MEAN TEMPERATURES.
PLEASE REFER TO CLIMATE PAGE FOR DETAILS AT:
TOP 10 WARMEST FOR ALBANY NY...
1) 45.9 2012
2) 44.4 1859
3) 43.8 1945
4) 43.8 1946
5) 43.3 1903
6) 43.0 1871
7) 42.7 1921
8) 42.3 1936
9) 42.0 1898
10) 41.9 1973
Blue Hill Observatory :
The average temperature for March through the 31st is 43.4 deg F.
March 2012 finished 2nd warmest on record.
BHO Warmest March, 1885-2012 (deg F)
1) 43.5 in 1946
2) 43.4 in 2012 [NEW RECORD]
3) 42.7 in 1945
4) 42.2 in 1903
5) 41.5 in 2010
January-March 2012 finished as the warmest start to any year on record.
The average temperature from January 1st through March 31st is 36.3F.
BHO Warmest January-March, 1886-2012 (deg F)
1) 36.3 in 2012 [NEW RECORD]
2) 35.0 in 2002
3) 34.7 in 1998
4) 33.9 in 1990
5) 33.2 in 1953
The total precipitation since January 1st through March 31st is 6.09
inches. January-March 2012 finished as the driest start to any year on
BHO Driest January-March, 1886-2012 (inches)
1) 6.09 in 2012 [NEW RECORD]
2) 7.20 in 1947
3) 7.39 in 1985
4) 7.92 in 1894
5) 7.97 in 2004
BHO Highest Monthly Average Temperature Departures (1885-1998)
1) [+10] January 1913
2) [+9.6] March 1946
3) [+9.4] January 1932
4) [+9.0] January 1937
So What's Next? The huge Ocean Storm slowly lifts north into the mean long wave trough over the North Atlantic, enhancing the North Atlantic Block. This block will send a new batch of cold dry air into New England every 36 hours this week, while keeping the next plains storm to our south. That storm changes Denver form Record warm 83 Sunday to snow by Tuesday. The old tricks of GFS had that as potential Easter Nor'easter here in last weeks Guidance. Now it appears that block will send that one of the southern Mid Atlantic states this weekend. If thsi holds, we will have a dry and warmer Easter before the next cold front arrives Monday April 9th. And of course the GFS tries to bring us more snow and rain in the 10-15 day period. We are in an extreme pattern, something's gotta give.
From the Recreation Department..
Even with all the warm and dry weather, we still had a decent ski season (though way to short.)
Friday March 30 was my Last Day. And to our Surprise it was a Powder Day!
Scott Bratten of Stowe Mountain Resort tokes some photos on the Fully Snow Covered Centerline Trail.
Surf should come up for Tuesday-Thursday.
Six Ski Areas Remain open in New England. The weather looks chilly and dry, with a few flurries this week, with a Beautiful Easter Weekend (as long as the Block Holds).