One, Last, Slight-and-unlikely-but-not-impossible Chance at a White Christmas for Southern New England - NECN
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One, Last, Slight-and-unlikely-but-not-impossible Chance at a White Christmas for Southern New England



    For dreamers of a White Christmas, the dream is hanging by a thread, but not entirely dashed.  Yet.

    The overall storm path has locked in a white Christmas for the mountains of Maine with snow depth now measured in feet, and will solidify a White Christmas for the Green Mountains of Vermont by the end of the upcoming weekend, as well as far Northern New Hampshire, as evidenced in the snow depth map below.  Keep in mind that the shallower snowpack will melt away in the 40 degree, sunny weather of Thursday and certainly the upcoming rain storm on Friday.

    Fb1So...with no more major storms prior to Christmas, the hope for a blockbuster snowstorm for Southern and Central New England is completely gone, and the chance of a White Christmas is quite low.  I am, however, always humble when forecasting nature, and always mindful of just how certain a forecast is, or isn't.  Looking to the Christmas Eve Monday and Christmas Day Tuesday forecast, there is only about 30% predictability - in essence, this means that of all the possible solutions, you won't find more than about 30% agreement on even the most likely scenario.  That's a fairly low level of predictability, and affords the opportunity for change to the forecast.  One of the possible scenarios - which holds about a 30% chance of transpiring as of this writing - is for an energetic disturbance to pass south of New England, just close enough to squeeze out a bit of accumulating snow Monday night into early Christmas morning, and one computer projection that portrays this scenario is at left.


    Current Snow Depth:


    That said, obviously the 30% chance I'm placing on this transpiring means I believe there's a 70% chance it doesn't come to pass...and the reason for this is that the disturbance, as of this writing, is located north of Alaska.  In the coming days, it will be drawn southward into a hurricane-force storm in the Gulf of Alaska, circulate around the storm, and eject on the east side of the circulation.  Thereafter, this energetic disturbance will become embedded in the Westerlies - the fast-flowing jet stream wind aloft - and will race across the country.  At that point, the exact track and timing of the disturbance would be critical, as well.  So...consider the number of factors that need to match up, and it's not a likely scenario to unfold, but...especially when dealing with Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning, I'm not one to rule out a bit of Christmas Magic.

     Monday afternoon, Christmas Eve Map:


    Tuesday afternoon, Christmas Day Map: