Tropical Storm Chantal Is Forecast to Near the East Coast Late Weekend, But Sudden Pattern Change May Keep Her Away From Northeast

(Click image to enlarge) Tropical Storm Chantal is headed for St. Lucia, and thereafter is currently forecast to move into the Bahamas and start turning north just off the coast of Florida. What's rather remarkable is that, at this point, the most likely end result of this storm as I see it right now may actuall be to head into the Southeastern United States this weekend or early next week. The reason that's remarkable is because, for weeks, the pattern has been ushering tropical moisture up the East Coast, so any tropical storm would do the same. Right now, however, it looks like that pattern changes just in the nick of time, with a massive high pressure ridge in the Western Atlantic growing so strong it forces Chantal west, and/or results in increased wind shear that would decrease her organization and strength. Too good to be true? Maybe, but right now, the most likely scenario as I see it, which would be fantastic not only for outdoor plans, but also considering New England is waterlogged, and rain of that magnitude would surely result in terrible flooding. I'll keep you posted, but I'm optimistic at this juncture.