(As always, click to enlarge images) With the jet stream suppressed southward in this forecast period of March 19-25, cool air will return to most of the Northern and Central United States, including the Northeast. Cold air is still available in Canada, and a broad Eastern United States trough will continue allowing for intrusions of moderated arctic air to the Northern Tier. Of course, with a rapidly strengthening sun angle, Southern warmth will continue to battle back against cold intrusions, and likely will be sufficient to produce an area of above normal temperatures in the South-Central United States. This only serves to increase baroclinicity (temperature difference) in a pattern that combines Pacific energy with northern stream shortwaves (disturbances).
The result of increased baroclinicity with an active jet stream is no secret - storm formation. As of this writing, the location of cyclogenesis during the forecast period is still at odds between a position along/near the East Coast, or offshore in Atlantic Canada. At this point, given the aforementioned baroclinicity and a pattern that will favor shortwave amplification (strengthening) near to the East Coast given the mean trough position, I have to believe at least one of the two stronger impulses - Tuesday/Wednesday, or next weekend, March 23/24 - will produce precipitation in New England. The first system, in particular, comes on the heels of the first and more intense shot of anomalously cool air for the Northeast, and therefore likely holds the best chance for accumulating snow in New England. Details of rain/snow placement will, as always, be determined much closer to the system based upon boundary layer detail (near surface temperature).
-Matt
