Ocean Storm as Powerful as 1997 April Fool's Blizzard | NECN
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Ocean Storm as Powerful as 1997 April Fool's Blizzard

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    NEWSLETTERS

     All year the weather models keep forecasting a Big Storm near New England in 10-15 days. Then 10-15 Days pass, and so does the storm threat. Somehow they continue to miss. Last week it was the March 27 storm that hit Newfoundland. This week it is a storm that raced across with rain and snow Sunday Night & early Monday. This was a mere 29.7' Low as is dug into the mean trough to our east. Now this storm is 'Bombing Out' the central pressure is dropping rapidly, down to 28.67" by Tuesday Morning April 3 (9 days ago the GFS weather model had this storm in the Gulf Of Maine on April 3rd) The new forecast calls for a position near 40 degrees north Latitude, 60 degrees west Longitude. With a central pressure of 28.67 that would be more powerful than the Great April Fools Day Blizzard of 1997. The two scenarios are shown below. A very close call on a Global Scale.

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    Yes, It is cold enough for a similar snowfall to 1997... One to Two feet with hurricane force gusts. I guess it's a good thing that this one is missing. Surfers will be happy with the Groundswell that arrives Later Wednesday and Thursday.

    Monday Morning Update
    Wildcat got 3" Snow Last Night.. otherwise this clipper under performed (again). Even so, at Boston Logan Airport ASOS .24" of Rainfall is the most H2O since the .38" March 3rd, including .1" snow, that was last measurable snow at BOS.

    We are running a 50% Rainfall Deficit in New England for 2012. Generally about 4"-6" of Rainfall this year is roughly half the climatological 'norm'. It's been nearly 10 years since the last prolonged drought, we may be due.
    Yeah it's been too warm, by about +12 degrees per day in March, the warmest on record for much of the USA east of The Rockies. Though at Blue Hill Observatory The Warmth of 1946 still holds as warmest March on record.
    There were a bunch of years.. 1910,1921,1936,1938,1939,1945,1946 & 1948 that were record breaking in the first half of The 20th Century. At that point the Globe had just Warmed from the Little Ice Age. Maybe we can call the Global Cooling of the mid 20th Century The Tiny Ice Age.
    Here is a sampling of  March 2012 Records set in New England.

    RECORD REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
    923 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

    ...MONTHLY MARCH RECORDS SET AT BURLINGTON VERMONT...

    THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 AT BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL
    AIRPORT WAS 43.2 DEGREES. THIS IS A NEW RECORD HIGH MONTHLY
    AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH MONTHLY AVERAGE
    TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 40.0 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1903.

    THE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 AT BURLINGTON
    INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 33.6 DEGREES. THIS IS A NEW RECORD HIGH
    AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MARCH WAS
    33.5 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1903.

    THE AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2012 AT BURLINGTON
    INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 52.8 DEGREES. THIS IS A NEW RECORD HIGH
    AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MARCH WAS
    52.0 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1946.

    MARCH 2012 WAS THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD (1884-2012) AT
    BURLINGTON VERMONT. IT FINISHED 12.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
    (1980-2010) WHICH IS THE THIRD HIGHEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
    DEPARTURE ON RECORD. THE TOP THREE MONTHLY DEPARTURES ARE LISTED
    BELOW:

    FEB 1981: +14.8 DEGREES
    JAN 1990: +13.2 DEGREES
    MAR 2012: +12.2 DEGREES

    RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
    1100 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

    ...CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE HAD ITS WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD...

    CONCORD HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 42.1 DEGREES IN MARCH. THIS
    BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 41.1 DEGREES SET IN 1921 AND AGAIN IN 1946.
    THIS MARCH WAS 9.0 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MARCH AVERAGE
    TEMPERATURE OF 33.1 DEGREES AND CONTRASTS TO THE COLDEST MARCH OF
    23.5 DEGREES SET IN 1885.

    SJC

    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
    1216 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012

    MARCH 2012 CAME IN AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR ALBANY...GLENS
    FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

    MARCH 2012 IS THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR ALBANY SINCE 1820 WITH
    AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 45.9 DEGREES...10.9 DEGREES ABOVE
    NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 44.4 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1859
    BY 1.5 DEGREES. SEVEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BROKEN...AS WELL
    AS FIVE HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND SEVEN HIGH MEAN TEMPERATURES.
    PLEASE REFER TO CLIMATE PAGE FOR DETAILS AT:
    WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY

    TOP 10 WARMEST FOR ALBANY NY...
    1)  45.9 2012
    2)  44.4 1859
    3)  43.8 1945
    4)  43.8 1946
    5)  43.3 1903
    6)  43.0 1871
    7)  42.7 1921
    8)  42.3 1936
    9)  42.0 1898
    10) 41.9 1973

    Blue Hill Observatory :
    The average temperature for March through the 31st is 43.4 deg F.
    March 2012 finished 2nd warmest on record.

    BHO Warmest March, 1885-2012 (deg F)
    1) 43.5 in 1946
    2) 43.4 in 2012 [NEW RECORD]
    3) 42.7 in 1945
    4) 42.2 in 1903
    5) 41.5 in 2010

    January-March 2012 finished as the warmest start to any year on record.
    The average temperature from January 1st through March 31st is 36.3F.

    BHO Warmest January-March, 1886-2012 (deg F)
    1) 36.3 in 2012 [NEW RECORD]
    2) 35.0 in 2002
    3) 34.7 in 1998
    4) 33.9 in 1990
    5) 33.2 in 1953

    The total precipitation since January 1st through March 31st is 6.09
    inches. January-March 2012 finished as the driest start to any year on
    record.

    BHO Driest January-March, 1886-2012 (inches)
    1) 6.09 in 2012 [NEW RECORD]
    2) 7.20 in 1947
    3) 7.39 in 1985
    4) 7.92 in 1894
    5) 7.97 in 2004

    BHO Highest Monthly Average Temperature Departures (1885-1998)
    1) [+10]   January  1913
    2) [+9.6]  March    1946
    3) [+9.4]  January  1932
    4) [+9.0]  January  1937
               February 1984
               March    2012

    So What's Next? The huge Ocean Storm slowly lifts north into the mean long wave trough over the North Atlantic, enhancing the North Atlantic Block. This block will send a new batch of cold dry air into New England every 36 hours this week, while keeping the next plains storm to our south. That storm changes Denver form Record warm 83 Sunday to snow by Tuesday. The old tricks of GFS had that as potential Easter Nor'easter here in last weeks Guidance. Now it appears that block will send that one of the southern Mid Atlantic states this weekend. If thsi holds, we will have a dry and warmer Easter before the next cold front arrives Monday April 9th. And of course the GFS tries to bring us more snow and rain in the 10-15 day period. We are in an extreme pattern, something's gotta give.

    From the Recreation Department..
    Even with all the warm and dry weather, we still had a decent ski season (though way to short.)
    Friday March 30 was my Last Day.  And to our Surprise it was a Powder Day!
    Scott Bratten of Stowe Mountain Resort tokes some photos on the Fully Snow Covered Centerline Trail.

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    Surf should come up for Tuesday-Thursday.
    Six Ski Areas Remain open in New England. The weather looks chilly and dry, with a few flurries this week, with a Beautiful Easter Weekend (as long as the Block Holds).