Winter Weather Taking a Backseat to Fall This Week. | NECN
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Meteorologists' Observations on the Weather

Winter Weather Taking a Backseat to Fall This Week.



    Killington Vermont Ski Resort October 13, 2012, Season pass appreciation day. Rime trail is open for riding.
    One of the earliest openings of a SkiTheEast resort since October 1, 1993.
    Photo Credit to The Burke's of Killington VT, Deb Burke photo, Bob Burke flying the plane.


    Saturday October 13, 2012 set record low temperatures here in New England, the coldest air for any October 13th since 1993.
    So what happened in the Winter of 1993/94?
    In Boston Massachusetts The winter of 1993/94 was the snowiest on record up to that point with 96.3". (2 years later that record was broken) Global Warming sure is good for snow in New England.
    Other 1993/94 Snow Records..
    125" Elkins WV
    131" Binghamton NY
    85" Hartford CT
    90" Wilkes Barre PA
    77" Pittsburgh PA

    The first measurable snow of the season also arrived in Greenville Maine this weekend.
    About one inch here at Moooshead Lake Maine between 7-9 am Sunday Oct 14th.


    On this same day a super storm formed in The Labrador Sea (part of the Friday Front in New England that brought in the record chill. Wind in Ikermiit Greenland was sustained at 63 mph from this no name 28.2" (955 millibar) storm.


    Though most of our weather comes form the west, sometimes we look east to get forecast clues from weather patterns in the North Atlantic.
    If we get those storms to stall for a few days, the cold gets backed up in Canada and is available to feed storms tracking at us form west to east across the USA. If we get that Greenland Block AND an El Nino, we can get some pretty hefty snow and cold. There are signs this pattern is setting up for this winter.

    But this week ahead, Oct 15-20, we see the powerful Pacific Jet punching into Western Canada, which usually means a warming trend for the lower 48, that is the case this week. The Greenland Block looses influence to the Pacific Jet this week. That means a warmer stretch for most oh the United States, including New England. No snow and ice this week.


    Looking out Long Range..
    The long wave pattern of East Pacific Ridge, Central US Trof has been in place for the most part of the last 2 months now. It is evident with heat and drought of June-July shifting from the Mid-West to the Western US. Cold and snow have been showing up now in the same place that experienced that extreme early summer heat, Montana to Texas, to the East Coast.
    Here in the northeast, we have shifted wetter, but not necessarily colder. We have cold then warm, then cold. The pattern has been extraordinarily similar each week since late July. Monday's (until this one) have featured new high pressure from Canada with sunshine and dry air. Then the high's have pushed off shore for a mid-week warm up. Position of the high offshore has been inconsistent. Some weeks the high goes to near Bermuda, some weeks to east of Massachusetts, some weeks to our northeast.
    Each position forces different wind directions for us.
    Bermuda = SSW and warm
    E of MA = ESE and mild/cool
    Canada Maritime = NE cool/cold
    These different tracks also have huge impact on sky cover and precipitation.
    For the last three weeks the Maritime high has ruled, giving us 2-4 days of inversion with cool off/on, mostly light, rain.
    Previous we saw more southern Highs, with 1-2 fronts per week on east coast producing heavy rain and thunder.
    The fronts have been arriving regularly Weds/Thurs-Sat/Sun. In fact this past Saturday Oct 13, was the first rain free Saturday since July 21.
    Also the source of each high plays a roll.
    High's of Arctic origin are obviously much deeper cold than of North America or Pacific Origin.
    Last week we had an Arctic High.
    On it's arrival in the USA Columbus Day weekend, Record Cold and Snow spread from the Rockies to the east Coast We had 3 out of 5 days with snowfall in New England. This extreme change from Hot to Cold rivaled a similar occurrence Columbus Day week 2000.
    Another link to past weather..
    That winter of 2000/2001 was very snowy, in March alone, the Blue Hill Observatory measured more than 40" of snow, the third snowiest March on record.
    Ten inches of snow on Mount Washington Oct 7-12 culminated with a record low temperature of 7 degrees Saturday October 13, 2012. The old record of 8 was set in 1993 (& 1936).
    Another link to past weather..
    We already went over what happened in the winter of 1993.

    These links , or analogs, get snow lovers juice flowing.
    Recall last two weeks discussions of links to 1995 (That snow and cold in Minnesota), and add in 1993 and 2000, all those winters featured many night out for the Plow Driver's of New England.

    A couple big question marks still loom..
    How much, and what is the orientation of North Atlantic Blocking.
    And what goes on in the pacific, how much and what is the orientation of possible El Nino.

    The final question..
    Why is Rumble so energetic lately?

    Rumble is Win Smith's (Sugarbush CEO) Bernese Mountain Dog.
    Win says: "Berners love the cold and the snow, so he seems to be sensing that it is going to be his kind of winter."