Did THEY forecast this much snow at Jay last week?
Um.. no, 'They' they did not forecast this much snow!
Thank you Tim Fater for sharing your bliss with us.
Tim says Jay Peak received all of 30"+ in a Saturday to Tuesday storm, and he wants to know-
how this happens, especially when we have no snow 20 miles away?
Here is my answer.
It's 'The Jay Cloud' Tim!
"Cold moist air from The Atlantic Ocean, and Hudson Bay Canada, rushing south across plains of Ontario and Quebec.
The first mountain it encounters is Jay Peak in Northern Vermont. Wind from the north lifts up over the Northern Green Mountains, causing dynamic cooling and condensation of the H2O resulting in said 'Jay Cloud'.
As long as the wind, and the chill, and the moisture content, is sufficient, it keeps on snowing in the northern Green Mountains, especially at Jay.. also parts of Northern New Hampshire and Maine.
All signs are we have a strong season, already in progress."
After a brief Monday November 18 thaw, we have a minor Jay Cloud with a few inches likely Tuesday, before a couple of quiet days (cold enough for snow making) Wednesday and Thursday. The next cold front arrives Friday or Saturday. Indications are that we have only a minimal Jay Cloud coming Friday night. But some extreme cold may swing in for the weekend.
Next week, now we are talking Thanksgiving week, we will likely have a a series of winter storms crossing the USA from Utah to Quebec. It's too early to call for all snow with those storms but the stakes are high, and an extreme event is possible.
Last week's surprise 30" is a good sign. Some winter's we over estimate many snowfall forecasts, some winters we under estimate.. so far this year, we are under estimating. That kind of forecasting error is a sign we may have one of those 'Old Fashioned' Winters.