— Trapp Family Lodge (@trappfamily) November 14, 2014
A quick moving low pressure center that left a coating of snow early Friday is racing away this evening. In its wake, New Englanders get the coldest night so far this autumn.
Under a sparkling celestial sky, temperatures are cooling to 20-30 degrees north to south. Likely the first freeze for parts of southeastern New England, including Boston, Cape Cod and the Islands.
Wind is fairly light, from the west 0-10 mph by dawn. A sunny Saturday is in store with highs near 35 north to 40 south, wind from the southwest 5-10 mph. High pressure moving off the mid Atlantic states Sunday allows warmer weather and clouds to increase, though the day should remain dry.
Highs Sunday in the 40s south, 30s north. Wind from the south and southeast increasing to 15 mph by sunset Sunday. Low pressure bringing light snow to Chicago Sunday moves into Ontario. That track puts us on the warmer side of the next storm system.
That means a mix of rain and snow Sunday night, changing to all rain for much of New England on Monday. The primary low in Ontario will weaken and a new low pressure center will develop off the Virginia coast, moving northeastward right over Cape Cod Monday night. We call this type of nor'easter "an inside runner," because its path is north and west of "the benchmark" of 40 degrees north, 70 degrees west.
So it's more of a nor'easter in Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont and Quebec than regions near the shore, where wind will be from the south, and then west as the low tracks over New Brunswick Monday night. Rain will be changing to snow before ending in most of New England, so we may have icy issues right to the shore early Tuesday.
A very early estimate is for one inch of rain at the shore, with a slight coating of snow possible on the backside, to a foot of snow in the mountains of New York and Vermont. That storm will strengthen rapidly from Maine to Labrador Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing cold to record cold air to rush into New England. Highs on Wednesday will be near 25 in the hills to 35 at coastal areas. Wind will be gusting 30-40 mph both days.
Another weak system arrives in New England next Thursday or Friday, with another coating of snow, or rain at the coast by next weekend.
Here is a very early, very rough estimate on how much snow we may pick up Sunday Night into Tuesday.
My hunch is that we will increase snow amounts in the mountains, to 10"-20" north and west of Mount Mansfield, Vermont.