Curran: Patriots' broken offense can be traced back to McDaniels' exit originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Here. Enjoy this seasonal metaphor.
Your brilliantly reliable heating system stops working. After years of stress-free, thought-free, toasty warmth, it needs replacing.
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You understand. You appreciated its service, but you know it’s time. You think, "This sucks, but I’ll get a new one. Maybe I’ll even save a few bucks. Replace it myself. I can Frankenstein a water heater with this old grill I have laying around in the shed and probably get decent results. How hard can it be?"
Then you start to find out. That thing was even better than you -- a full-fledged home appliance expert -- knew. All those years of toasty, stress-free warmth that you got used to? And the heater/AC thing you jerry-rigged? Kinda doesn’t work. People are cold. And not that happy.
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It’s Raiders week. Which means, with the Patriots offense not working so good, it’s time to revisit the team’s decision to replace former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels with a "collaborative" of Matt Patricia, Joe Judge and Bill Belichick. Three heads have not been better than one.
McDaniels, of course, wasn’t broken and didn’t exactly need replacing. The 2021 Patriots went to the playoffs and had a better-than-average offense, scoring 48 touchdowns (24 on the ground, 24 by air). They were 10th in the league on third down (43.5 percent conversion rate), 11th in the red zone (62 percent TDs on trips inside the 20) and Mac Jones was an Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner most of the year.
But when the Raiders came calling, the Patriots made no effort to convince McDaniels to stay. He would have been open to the conversation. He loved it here -- loved working with Jones and for the Kraft family. If he’d gotten any assurance at all he’d one day be Bill Belichick’s successor, that would have given him pause.
Unlike 2018 when the Krafts -- and Belichick -- made an 11th-hour pitch to keep him from going to Indy with a pay bump and a reported promise from Belichick to "open his world" to McDaniels, they let him go.
Could be they didn’t think he’d pass up a head coaching job. Could be they -- ownership -- don’t know what Belichick’s exit plan is but do know he’s earned the right to author it. Could be they didn’t think it was fair to McDaniels to make a promise or even give a hint if they weren’t sure they could honor it. Could be they simply didn’t think McDaniels was the right guy for the job.
For McDaniels -- even with the outrageously rocky season he’s had with Vegas -- it’s for the best the phone never rang. He and former Pats personnel man Dave Ziegler have a stocked roster on both sides of the ball. He has a four-year deal, an owner who trusts his vision, a kickass stadium and facility and a franchise that is begging for a return to glory.
For the Patriots -- even if they 100 percent believe they made the right move letting McDaniels go -- the succession plan (or lack thereof) has been disastrous for their offense, the second-year quarterback and the high-priced skill-position assets.
They have 23 touchdowns in 13 games. Jones is still upside down in his TD-INT ratio (7 and 8), they’re last in the league in the red zone (38.89 percent) and 28th on third down (35.58 percent). All of this after adding DeVante Parker and getting Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor back with a year under their belts. Not to mention Jones.
It’s been a lost season offensively. Jones’ on-field development has regressed (though his resilience and leadership are arguably improving). De facto OC/play-caller/offensive line coach/piñata Matt Patricia is getting routinely crushed thanks to the spot Belichick put him in. The Patriots' vaunted situational savvy and discipline has evaporated. With all that, Belichick’s judgment takes a dent. Another one.
Did he underestimate how good McDaniels was at his job? Did he underestimate how hard the job was? Did he overestimate the ease of having this "collaborative" install a different offense with different terminology for a second-year quarterback who’s still a little wet behind the ears?
When McDaniels' departure was broached with Belichick this week, he gave the same, “What can ya do, happens all the time, nothing to see here…” answer he usually does.
And to a point, he’s totally justified in doing that. Who’s been raided more than the Patriots? In the past decade alone, Patricia, Brian Flores and McDaniels have taken new head coaching jobs and when each one left, they took assistants and staff with them. Ziegler, Nick Caserio and Monti Ossenfort have lit out from the personnel department. The Patriots even lost Jack Easterby (kidding …).
In addition to those guys leaving, Ernie Adams, Ivan Fears and Dante Scarnecchia retired.
Does it suck replacing guys you groomed when they leave and -- on the way out the door -- take promising underlings with them? Does it suck to lose the brain power of Caserio, Adams and Scarnecchia? Of course. Never mind the Brady-Gronk-Edelman-White-Hightower-Develin-Gilmore-Van Noy collection of talent and institutional knowledge out the door. The Patriots have been pillaged.
But the Patriots' plan for addressing the almost inevitable loss of McDaniels was basically to rummage around the garage for his replacement, then jam said replacement into place whether he fit or not. It’s worked as well as most expected.
The only person of import who has to be surprised at how badly its gone? Belichick. Presumably.
Would he do it all the same way again, overestimating Patricia or underestimating McDaniels? Overrating his team or underrating the competition? You’d hope not. You’d hope that, when the season ends and the high-level confabs happen, Belichick is quick to say, "Well, that didn’t work, here’s what I have planned to get us back on track…"
I’ve heard more than a few Patriots say Belichick made them understand they had to be comfortable being uncomfortable. Plugging in Patricia and Joe Judge was a comfortable move by Belichick. Easier than bringing in some "outsider" with novel ideas and no sense for the tribal customs of Bill’s program.
The price of that comfort has been a product that’s uncomfortable to watch.
