Where did the weekend Record Flood come from?
We did not even have a flood watch up in Pennsylvania.
RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013...
RAINFALL RECORDS SET AT PHILADELPHIA...
A TOTAL OF 8.02 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE PHILADELPHIAINTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON SUNDAY. THE TOTAL OF 8.02 INCHES IS THE MOST RAINFALL ON RECORD FOR ANYCALENDAR DAY AT PHILADELPHIA.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ONSEPTEMBER 16, 1999 DURING TROPICAL STORM FLOYD AND THAT AMOUNT WAS6.63 INCHES.SUNDAY`S RAINFALL HAS ALSO BROUGHT THE TOTAL FOR JULY TO 13 INCHESEVEN, BREAKING THE RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS RECORDRAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AT PHILADELPHIA WAS 10.42 INCHES SETIN 1994.
OFFICIAL CLIMATE RECORDS FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO 1872.IOVINO
How can this happen?
Weather is caused by differential heating of earth, by the sun.
Greater solar energy is absorbed by land masses and oceans near the equator, than at the poles. Laws of fluid thermodynamics under the force of gravity result in highly complex circulations in our atmosphere and oceans.
The atmospheric circulations occur on many different scales. On a local scale we see Low Pressure Cyclones, and High Pressure Anti-Cyclones. And a much larger scale are the streams of wind high in the sky, known as Jet Streams and Steering Currents.Extreme Weather, think of Rogue Waves in the sky.
Much like the occurrence of rogue waves on the surface of the ocean, but in much slower motion, we get rogue waves in the atmosphere.Water on the ocean surface waves undulating in differential amplitude and velocity will occasionally resonate in a manner that results in surface waves greater than 100 feet tall, even as all the surrounding waves maybe only half that size. Those 100 footers are known as rogues.
Now we have rogue waves in the atmosphere occurring in greater frequency of late. The jet stream has been shifting around in a a very high amplitude and contorted fashion. The result is record warm, and record cold. Also record wet, and record dry.
Why all this extreme weather now?
We are now repeating an extreme weather pattern similar to the 1930s to the 1950s, when the earth started cooling from a warm period. At the same time The Atlantic Ocean shifted into warm phase of the well know Atlantic Multi-Decadel Oscillation, or Warm AMO. At the same time the Pacific Ocean shifted into a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the entire combination is very similar to what's happened in the last 30 years.
We are coming off a warming period of the earth, at the same time shifting into cooler Pacific and warmer Atlantic. In addition, the solar cycle is also in a phase of less sunspot activity, which research is showing may cause an increased amplitude jet stream with higher occurrence of blocking patterns.
1990s to 2010s similar to 1930s to 1950s
During the time period 50 or so years ago major flooding and frequent tropical cyclones wreaked havoc in the eastern United States.This past weekend's floods caused by weather being weather.We do not need named tropical storms to produce such havoc, as was demonstrated this past weekend with the record flooding from North Carolina to Pennsylvania.
Though we did not experience a cyclone, we did experience the earths normal process of trying to balance the extreme chill form the north pole, against the extreme warmth of The Atlantic Ocean. In all my years of professional meteorology, I do not remember one summer when we had air cold enough for snow so far south from the north pole in July. Yet that kind of cold has yet to fade since last winter.
Last Thursday, July 25, 2013, the temperature at Saranac Lake NY cooled to a record 33 degrees. That is not even the same air mass that arrived farther west a day later, when record low high temperatures in the 50s hit the Great Lakes Saturday July 27th.
As of this writing, Sunday Night July 28 we have a frost advisory issued in northern Minnesota.
This writing is an extension of what was posted a few weeks back regarding the likelihood of Hurricanes running the east coast to New England this year.
For New England the hurricane season is most active in August and September, so the real trouble may lie ahead.
There is no end in sight to this pattern.
Here are a few more NWS statements regarding the extreme cold and extreme wet weather over the last several days.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN327 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY...ISABELLA...BIGFORK...HIBBING327 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A FROSTADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY.* LOCATION...FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...INCLUDING NORTHERNITASCA...KOOCHICHING...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS...ANDNORTHERN PORTIONS OF COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES.* TEMPERATURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP IN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLETHIRTIES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST.* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL BE PRONE TO DAMAGE OR BE KILLED.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOORPLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.MELDEHoney, bring in the Garden!National Weather Service Forecast Office, La Crosse WI:Record Cold Temperatures from July 26th to July 29thA strong Canadian cold front moved through the region on Friday. This front brought record and near record cold to the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Record cold high temperatures and record low temperatures were set across the region from Friday into Monday morning. Here is a listing of the records set or tied from July 26th through July 29th.Record Cold High Temperatures for Friday July 26th... New Old Location State Record Record -------- ----- ------ ------Alma Dam 4 WI 68 70 in 1981Boscobel ASOS WI 64 76 in 2011Byron MN 70 70 in 1994Charles City IA 64 65 in 1905Guttenberg Dam 10 IA 65 69 in 1972La Crescent Dam 7 WI 69 77 in 1977Minnesota City Dam 5 MN 69 77 in 1977Record Low Temperatures for Saturday July 27th... New Old Location State Record Record -------- ----- ------ ------Alma Dam 4 WI 49 51 in 1981La Cresent Dam 7 MN 52 60 in 1977La Crosse NWS WI 47 52 in 2005Minnesota Dam 5 MN 53 56 in 1977Winona Dam 5A MN 50 52 in 1971Record Cold High Temperatures for Saturday July 27th... New Old Location State Record Record -------- ----- ------ ------Byron MN 62 76 in 2012Elkader IA 62 68 in 1962Fayette IA 63 68 in 1962Friendship WI 58 68 in 1935La Crosse WI 62 69 in 1981Medford WI 55 61 in 1944 New Hampton IA 64 68 in 1971 Osage WI 64 68 in 1962 Owen 3W WI 55 66 in 1981Preston MN 63 70 in 1971Richland Center WI 61 64 in 1991Owen 3W WI 55 66 in 1981Richland Center WI 61 64 in 1991 Rochester MN 61 64 in 1981Viroqua WI 58 60 in 1991Winona Dam 5A MN 61 70 in 1942Record Low Temperatures for Sunday July 28th... New Old Location State Record Record -------- ----- ------ ------Byron MN 44 45 in 1994Friendship WI 48 50 in 2005Rochester MN 46 47 in 1934Winona Dam 5A MN 50 54 in 2005Record Cold High Temperatures for Sunday July 28th... New Old Location State Record Record -------- ----- ------ ------Byron MN 69 74 in 2009Osage IA 69 71 in 1991Elkader IA 69 70 in 1898Neillsville WI 65 70 in 1904Prairie du Chien WI 70 70 in 1898Viroqua WI 66 67 in 1991Other Cold Tidbits...Owen WI had their 3rd Coldest July high temperature (55F) on July 27th. The only days which were colder were July 1 1959 (53F) and July 5 1967 (53F).La Crosse WI tied July 20 1912, July 6 1920, and July 4 1967 for their 2nd coldest July (62F) high temperature on July 27th. The only July day which had a colder high temperature was July 3 1962 when the high temperature was just 61 degrees.La Crosse WI had an average temperature of 56.5 degrees on July 27th. This was second coldest for July. The only other day which was colder was July 4 1967 when the average temperature was 53 degrees.Rochester MN had a low temperature of 46 degrees on July 28th. This was the coldest July temperature since July 7 1997.Record Low Temperatures for Monday July 29th... New Old Location State Record Record -------- ----- ------ ------Byron MN 43 48 in 2009Friendship WI 47 47 in 2009THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 56 DEGREES WAS TIED ATDULUTH MN SATURDAY JULY 27, 2013. THIS DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED THE OLD RECORDSET IN 1888.PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ735 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OURREGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVEOBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THISSUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSRAINFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTDELAWARE...SUSSEX COUNTY...MILTON 2.37 542 PM 7/28 TRAINED SPOTTERNEW JERSEY...CAMDEN COUNTY...GLOUCESTER CITY 7.00 708 PM 7/28 PUBLICMOUNT EPHRAIM 4.76 606 PM 7/28 TRAINED SPOTTERSOMERDALE 2.85 720 PM 7/28 CO-OP OBSERVERCHERRY HILL 2.26 733 PM 7/28 NJWXNET...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...WESTVILLE 4.15 723 PM 7/28 PUBLICWEST DEPTFORD TWP 3.78 627 PM 7/28 PUBLICWENONAH 2.30 640 PM 7/28 PUBLIC...HUNTERDON COUNTY...READINGTON TWP 3.00 507 PM 7/28 COCORAHSFLEMINGTON 2.21 442 PM 7/28 TRAINED SPOTTERWHITEHOUSE STATION 2.02 514 PM 7/28 TRAINED SPOTTERWHITEHOUSE 2.00 723 PM 7/28 PUBLIC...MORRIS COUNTY...PARSIPPANY 2.39 733 PM 7/28 NJWXNETLONG HILL TWP 2.25 645 PM 7/28 TRAINED SPOTTER...SALEM COUNTY...PENNSVILLE 4.22 539 PM 7/28 PUBLIC...SOMERSET COUNTY...BASKING RIDGE 2.96 731 PM 7/28 NJWXNETBRIDGEWATER TWP 2.66 556 PM 7/28 TRAINED SPOTTERFAR HILLS 2.49 731 PM 7/28 MESONETPOTTERSVILLE 2.17 731 PM 7/28 MESONET...SUSSEX COUNTY...FLATBROOKVILLE 2.74 730 PM 7/28 MESONET...WARREN COUNTY...PEQUEST 2.15 732 PM 7/28 NJWXNETPENNSYLVANIA...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...PHILADELPHIA INTL AI 7.35 708 PM 7/28 ASOS$$GAINESNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC533 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0755 PM FLOOD 4 ENE TIMMONSVILLE 34.16N 79.87W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYSW PALMETTO ST NEAR THE SWAMP FOX INN CLOSED DUE TOROADWAY FLOODING0805 PM FLOOD 4 NNW FLORENCE 34.23N 79.80W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC MEDIAMEDIA RELAYED VIEWER REPORT OF MINOR FLOODING AT I-95AND U.S. HWY 52 - WATER ALMOST UP TO THE BOTTOM OF CARS0821 PM FLOOD 1 NE FLORENCE 34.20N 79.76W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC 911 CALL CENTERCHEVES STREET AT THE TRAIN OVERPASS CLOSED DUE TOROADWAY FLOODING - RELAYED BY 911 CENTER AND MEDIA0821 PM FLOOD 2 SE FLORENCE 34.16N 79.76W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC 911 CALL CENTERROADWAY FLOODING WITH DISABLED VEHICLES AT PAMPLICO HWYAND CHURCH ST0821 PM FLOOD 4 ENE TIMMONSVILLE 34.16N 79.87W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC TRAINED SPOTTERROADWAY FLOODING NEAR I-95 AND U.S. HWY 76 - SPOTTERHEARD REPORT VIA SCANNER0821 PM FLOOD 1 NE FLORENCE 34.19N 79.76W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC TRAINED SPOTTERROADWAY FLOODING ON EAST PALMETTO ST UNDERNEATH THETRAIN BRIDGE - SPOTTER HEARD REPORT VIA SCANNER0827 PM FLOOD 1 ENE FLORENCE 34.18N 79.77W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC PUBLICMEDIA RELAYED VIEWER REPORT OF ROADWAY FLOODING AT 900BLOCK OF S DARGAN ST WITH DISABLED VEHICLES0827 PM FLOOD 2 W FLORENCE 34.19N 79.81W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC PUBLICMEDIA RELAYED VIEWER REPORT OF ROADWAY FLOODING ON WESTEVANS ST NEAR PALMETTO ST WITH DISABLED VEHICLES0829 PM FLOOD 3 W FLORENCE 34.19N 79.84W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC TRAINED SPOTTERROADWAY FLOODING ON DAVID MCCLOUD BLVD NEAR I-95 -WATER APPROXIMATELY 1 FOOT DEEP0830 PM FLOOD 2 NNE FLORENCE 34.20N 79.77W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC 911 CALL CENTERROADWAY FLOODING WITH DISABLED VEHICLES AT 400 BLOCK OFDARGAN ST0836 PM FLOOD 3 WSW FLORENCE 34.16N 79.83W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYSBRITTANY DRIVE AT SOUTH CASHUA DRIVE CLOSED DUE TOROADWAY FLOODING0845 PM FLOOD 2 SE FLORENCE 34.16N 79.76W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC LAW ENFORCEMENTROADWAY FLOODING ON CHURCH ST. NEAR BI-LO - ESTIMATEDONE FOOT OF WATER ON THE ROAD0912 PM FLOOD 3 E QUINBY 34.23N 79.68W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYSOLD MARION HWY AT S.C. HWY 327 CLOSED DUE TO ROADWAYFLOODING1016 PM FLOOD 4 ENE TIMMONSVILLE 34.16N 79.87W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYSWEST PALMETTO ST. AT I-95 CLOSED DUE TO ROADWAYFLOODING1018 PM FLOOD 3 NW FLORENCE 34.21N 79.81W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYSSUMTER ST. BETWEEN CASHUA DRIVE AND I-95 CLOSED DUE TOROADWAY FLOODING1030 PM FLOOD 6 ESE OATS 34.23N 79.98W07/27/2013 DARLINGTON SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUEWATER ON ROADWAY AT S CENTER RD AND LAMAR HWY - 911CENTER RELAYED REPORT FROM FIRE DEPT.1038 PM FLOOD 1 NNW COWARD 33.98N 79.75W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC LAW ENFORCEMENTROADWAY FLOODING ALONG FACTORY STREET1100 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW EVERGREEN 34.05N 79.71W07/27/2013 M3.96 INCH FLORENCE SC TRAINED SPOTTER3.96 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN WITHIN THE PAST 2HOURS ON LEBANON RD IN EFFINGHAM1152 PM FLOOD 5 NNE PAMPLICO 34.06N 79.54W07/27/2013 FLORENCE SC LAW ENFORCEMENTWEST OLD RIVER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.